Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the final reading locked at 12:00 UTC on that date. June in Seoul typically sees mean highs between 26–28°C, though extremes can reach into the low 30s during early summer heat waves. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect a notably high reading—likely above the upper-range brackets offered—or reflect genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will contain the day's peak.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade has recorded June highs ranging from 23°C to 34°C, with heat waves occasionally pushing readings above 32°C. The 2018 Korean heat event and subsequent warm Junes in 2019 and 2023 demonstrate that extreme June temperatures, whilst uncommon, are not unprecedented. Comparable prediction markets on Seoul summer temperatures have typically seen probabilities cluster around 2–5% for the highest brackets, suggesting the current 1% may reflect either a conservative crowd view or concentration of traders in lower-temperature ranges.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña patterns emerging in early 2026, as these influence East Asian summer temperatures. Late May and early June weather patterns will provide the most direct signal; persistent high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula in the week preceding 13 June would increase the likelihood of elevated readings. Real-time tracking via Wunderground's historical data tool remains the only authoritative resolution source.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.