Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which archives daily highs for this Seoul-area station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no meaningful conviction in any single temperature band, or that the market has attracted minimal participation ahead of the event window closing at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

Seoul's June climate typically produces highs between 26–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early heat waves. Historical June records at Incheon show considerable year-on-year variance; the airport station has recorded June highs ranging from 23°C in cooler years to 35°C during warm spells. Comparable markets on East Asian summer temperatures have resolved across wide ranges, reflecting the sensitivity of airport-station readings to time-of-day measurement, cloud cover, and proximity to maritime influence. The current flat probability distribution suggests either genuine uncertainty about the specific range or insufficient trader engagement with a weather event six months forward.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasting updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any El Niño or La Niña signals that influence North Pacific weather patterns affecting the Korean peninsula in early summer. Incheon's coastal location means maritime air masses can suppress afternoon highs, whilst inland heat domes occasionally push readings higher. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's archived data for that single day; no real-time adjustments or disputes are possible once the window closes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.