Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The Korea Meteorological Administration maintains this station as Seoul's primary weather observation point, and historical daily maxima for mid-June typically range between 26 and 32 degrees Celsius, though extreme heat events can push readings several degrees higher. Resolution will depend on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, which aggregates official Korean meteorological data.

June temperatures in Seoul show considerable year-to-year variation. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits near 28°C, but the city has recorded June maxima exceeding 34°C during heat waves, most notably in 2018 and 2022 when early summer heat waves affected the Korean peninsula. Conversely, cooler Junes with highs around 24–26°C occur when monsoon systems arrive early or when Pacific high-pressure systems remain weak. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders view the market's resolution ranges as either poorly calibrated or expect settlement complications; historical volatility in Seoul's early summer weather typically warrants meaningful probability mass across multiple temperature bands.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasting from the Korea Meteorological Administration and regional atmospheric patterns from late May onwards. El Niño and La Niña cycles influence East Asian summer onset timing and intensity. The accessibility of this market depends on jurisdiction: UK-based traders face no specific KYC threshold under Gambling Commission guidance for prediction markets, whilst US persons encounter CFTC restrictions on weather derivatives unless using registered platforms. German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV regulations, which treat prediction markets as gambling products subject to licensing requirements.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.