Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Seoul's mid-June climate typically sees daily highs between 26 and 30 degrees Celsius, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement will depend on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement window close.

Historical June temperature patterns at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on or near 16 June ranged from 24 to 32 degrees Celsius, with an average around 27–28 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders anticipate a moderate outcome rather than extreme heat; this reflects baseline seasonal expectations rather than confidence in any particular range. Comparable early-summer Seoul markets have typically resolved toward mid-to-upper 20s unless preceded by sustained high-pressure systems.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 16 June, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual pressure patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months can influence East Asian summer onset timing and intensity. Real-time tracking of upper-atmosphere patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific will provide the most actionable signals; these typically become clearer 7–10 days before the resolution date. No major scheduled events or policy changes affect this market's outcome directly.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.