Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows Seoul’s daytime highs in June typically range from 19 to 28°C, with late June often hotter and more humid as the rainy season begins [1][2]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a specific high-temperature range likely reflects uncertainty about whether conditions will breach the upper historical norm, though record-breaking June heat has occurred, such as Seoul’s 35.6°C peak in 2023 [10]. Traders should note that early June is usually milder, while late June can see temperatures climb toward 29°C or higher, depending on monsoon timing [2][7].

Key catalysts include the official start of Korea’s monsoon season, which typically runs from late June to mid-July and can suppress peak temperatures through increased rainfall and cloud cover [1][6]. Traders must monitor daily forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration for heatwave alerts or sudden humidity spikes, as these directly influence the day’s maximum reading [5][9]. A recent report from Asia News Network highlighted South Korea’s hottest June day on record, underscoring that extreme outliers remain possible despite average trends [10]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdiction: German GlüStV rules may restrict unlicensed platforms, while US CFTC reach could apply to cross-border activity. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows retail traders to access this market without identity verification, provided they stay under the limit, enhancing immediacy but requiring caution on compliance boundaries.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.