Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded on 25 June 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by Wunderground data. Historical patterns for late June in Seoul show a clear trend toward rising heat and humidity as the monsoon season approaches, with daily highs typically ranging between 25°C and 30°C, though real-feel temperatures can exceed 35°C due to humidity over 80%[1][5]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that late June often sees peak temperatures near 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching 26.7°C, suggesting that a 0% YES probability for higher ranges may reflect a conservative market view rather than an impossibility of extreme heat[6].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and any announcements regarding monsoon intensity, as heavy rains can suppress peak temperatures despite high humidity[4]. A recent broadcast from KBS on 25 June 2026 reported no extreme heat with a midday high of 27°C, followed by heavy afternoon showers, which may influence expectations for the settlement date[7]. Regulatory accessibility remains a key factor: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean that platforms offering “no-KYC up to $1,500” allow traders to access this market without identity verification, provided the bet size stays within that threshold, enhancing liquidity for retail participants while maintaining compliance with cross-border gambling laws.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.