Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Settlement depends on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific location and date, with the final figure locked at 12:00 UTC. Seoul's early June climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push readings higher; the airport station, situated near the coast, often records slightly cooler maxima than central Seoul due to maritime influence.

The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all temperature bands. Historical June data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation: 2023 saw a peak of 29.4°C on 4 June, whilst 2022 recorded 24.1°C on the same date. This volatility reflects the transitional nature of early summer in the Korean peninsula, where subtropical air masses occasionally penetrate northward but cool maritime air remains influential. Comparable markets on East Asian airport temperatures typically see wider probability distributions once trading volume increases.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 4 June, particularly any alerts regarding early-season heat waves or unusual pressure patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 may influence regional temperature anomalies. The settlement window closes at noon UTC, allowing only morning Incheon readings to count; traders must account for the nine-hour time difference between Seoul local time and UTC when interpreting real-time weather data.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.