Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily highs in Celsius. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces temperatures between 25 and 32°C in early June, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market to resolve outside the upper temperature bands being offered.

Historical June weather at Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2010 and 2024, daily highs in early June ranged from 19°C to 34°C, with most years clustering around 26–29°C. Exceptionally warm Junes—such as 2018 and 2023—saw temperatures exceed 32°C on multiple days. The current probability distribution may reflect either conservative baseline expectations or insufficient liquidity in higher-temperature brackets rather than genuine meteorological consensus about conditions one year ahead.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and broader Northern Hemisphere summer pattern indicators as June 2026 approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if established by spring 2026, could shift regional temperature trajectories. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 June, meaning only the peak temperature recorded up to that point counts; afternoon heat spikes occurring after noon UTC would not be captured. Wunderground's historical data for Incheon RKSI is the sole authoritative source, making data-access verification essential before trade execution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.