Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

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Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific location and date, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC on the day itself. This market captures a straightforward meteorological outcome with no ambiguity in measurement source or methodology.

Seoul's early June climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C during this period. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme temperatures—those exceeding 32°C in early June—occur in roughly 15–20% of years, usually driven by early-season high-pressure systems moving northward from the Pacific. The current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in a baseline expectation aligned with seasonal norms rather than anomalous heat. Comparable markets on Seoul temperatures in adjacent months have shown that crowd estimates tend to underweight tail-risk heat events until mid-May forecasts confirm their likelihood.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day outlook, typically released weekly, which flags developing heat patterns by early June. Upper-atmosphere pressure indices and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific become material signals by late May. Recent precedent—the June 2022 heat dome that pushed Seoul to 33°C—demonstrates how rapidly consensus can shift when atmospheric conditions align. The settlement window's noon closure means final forecasts from international models (GFS, ECMWF) issued on 7 June evening will be the last major information event before resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.