Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded that day in degrees Celsius. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes daily observations through Wunderground, the designated resolution source, making this a straightforward factual settlement tied to a specific monitoring station rather than city-wide averages.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show a median high around 24–26°C, though the range spans 18–32°C depending on monsoon activity and high-pressure systems. Early June typically precedes the onset of the East Asian rainy season, meaning conditions can vary sharply year-to-year. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending activation. Comparable Korean weather markets have resolved reliably once the settlement date passes, as Wunderground's historical records remain stable and publicly auditable.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market sits within the German GlüStV framework for prediction markets operating under certain exemptions, whilst remaining subject to CFTC oversight if accessed from the United States. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to individual positions on this market, meaning traders can place stakes below that limit without identity verification on compliant platforms. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 9 June 2026, after which Wunderground's final daily high becomes the binding reference point. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks in May 2026 for early signals on temperature extremes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.