Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, with the final reading locked once the day concludes. Seoul's late-May climate typically sits between 22–28 °C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. In 2023, the 23rd recorded a high of 26.1 °C; in 2022, it reached 24.4 °C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration event. Comparable late-spring Seoul markets have resolved across the full range of plausible outcomes, indicating that without anomalous weather systems, mid-to-high 20s Celsius remain the baseline expectation.

Traders should monitor long-range weather models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) as May 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for early-season heat domes or cold fronts that could shift the expected range. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 23 May, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on real-time forecasts. Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction: UK traders face no specific KYC threshold for weather derivatives under £1,500 notional value, whilst US participants remain subject to CFTC oversight regardless of market size. German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV provisions, which classify prediction markets as gaming activity requiring state licensing.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.