Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. June is early summer in Shanghai, with typical daily highs ranging from 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature in the local timezone.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty. Historical June temperatures in Shanghai show clustering around 28–31°C as the modal range, with excursions above 34°C occurring in roughly one year per decade. Comparable prediction markets on Shanghai summer temperatures have typically seen probability mass concentrate in the 28–32°C bands, with tail probabilities (above 35°C) rarely exceeding 5–8% even during known warm-season patterns. The absence of current trading activity leaves the market unpriced; early traders will establish the baseline.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña indices released before June, as these influence East Asian summer temperature patterns. Wunderground's historical data feed for ZSPD station has remained consistent and publicly accessible; no recent disruptions to Shanghai airport weather reporting have been documented. The market's accessibility under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks depends on trader jurisdiction—UK and EU residents face standard KYC requirements, whilst the no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies only to certain jurisdictions and does not override local regulatory obligations. Traders should verify their own compliance status before participation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.