Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

At Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the day’s highest temperature on 21 June 2026 will be measured against a June climate that is already warm, humid and often unsettled. Long-run airport data for June points to typical afternoon highs in the high 20s Celsius, with average highs rising through the month and daily highs commonly around 25–30°C on cloudy or rainy days; WeatherSpark and TravelChinaGuide both frame June as the start of Shanghai’s summer heat and plum-rain season.[1][5]

The current **0% YES** implies the market is pricing in an outcome that lands outside the listed winning range, but that should be read cautiously in a weather event resolved by a single station reading. Comparable June forecasts for Pudong show highs generally in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, with AccuWeather’s June 2026 range at 76° to 87°F and climate-data’s June average maximum near 27°C, so a spike into the upper 30s would be unusual rather than impossible.[2][6] For a settlement tied to the day’s recorded maximum, traders usually watch late-morning heating, cloud cover, rainfall timing and any convective storm bursts that can cap or briefly lift the peak.

On accessibility, German **GlüStV** rules matter because weather-linked prediction markets can still fall under gambling-style scrutiny if offered to German users without the right authorisation, even when the event is factual rather than sporting. The US **CFTC** can also come into view if a venue offers event contracts to US persons or markets that regulators treat as derivatives-like products, so exchange structure and user geography are part of the risk picture. Where a platform says **“no-KYC up to $1,500”**, that usually means small balances or withdrawals may be available with lighter identity checks, but access can still be limited by jurisdictional blocks, country exclusions, or source-of-funds checks once limits are reached; for this market, that affects who can actually enter before settlement rather than the underlying temperature outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.