Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, Shanghai will record a daily high temperature at Pudong International Airport Station. The settlement will identify which temperature band—typically in 1 or 2 degree Celsius increments—contains that peak reading, sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific station and date. The current crowd probability of 0% reflects the market's nascent stage; traders have not yet positioned ahead of the event window closing at noon UTC on the settlement date.

Shanghai's June climate is characteristically warm and humid, with historical highs in early June typically ranging between 28 and 32 degrees Celsius. The 0% probability suggests either minimal trading activity or a technical artefact in the market's initialisation rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable weather markets on this platform show that temperature-range markets rarely settle at extremes; most June days in Shanghai fall within the 29–31°C band based on meteorological records from the past decade.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable to EU traders, whilst US CFTC oversight extends to American participants depending on their broker's licensing. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD per trade means traders can place modest positions without identity verification, though aggregate exposure across multiple markets may trigger compliance requirements. Weather markets typically attract retail participation given their binary clarity and short settlement windows; liquidity tends to improve as the event date approaches, particularly if forecasts diverge materially from historical norms.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.