Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, meaning the market reflects expectations for peak daytime heat during late spring in Shanghai, when subtropical conditions typically prevail ahead of the summer monsoon season.

Historical May temperatures at Shanghai Pudong show a median high of approximately 28–29 °C, with extremes ranging from 22 °C to 35 °C depending on synoptic patterns. The current 0% crowd probability assigned to any specific range suggests either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve, or that traders have not yet engaged with this market in volume. Comparable May weather markets in East Asia have historically seen clustering around 26–32 °C ranges; the absence of early positioning here may reflect late-season booking or limited liquidity rather than genuine confidence in any outcome.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, particularly any alerts for heat waves or anomalous warming systems moving into the Yangtze River Delta region. El Niño or La Niña phase transitions influence spring temperatures across eastern China; the current state of the Pacific Oscillation in early 2026 will shape whether May runs warmer or cooler than climatological norms. Wunderground's historical archive updates daily, so final settlement depends on that source's data integrity and timestamp protocols for the Pudong station.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.