Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience early summer heat on 9 June 2026. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station that day, measured in Celsius and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather database. June marks the onset of Shenzhen's hot and humid monsoon season, with typical daily highs ranging from 28–32°C, though extremes above 35°C occur in roughly one-third of June days across the past decade.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a narrow temperature band or sparse trading activity on this specific market. Historical June data from Bao'an shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C are uncommon but not unprecedented; the station recorded 37.2°C on 9 June 2015. Comparable weather prediction markets on regional temperature extremes typically see probability shifts only when seasonal forecasts or El Niño conditions shift materially. Current atmospheric patterns and long-range models will be the primary drivers; traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early June, which could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under differing frameworks depending on trader location. German traders face GlüStV oversight, which classifies weather derivatives as financial instruments requiring specific licensing. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on offshore platforms, though weather contracts fall outside direct CFTC jurisdiction if structured as prediction markets rather than derivatives. Many platforms offer KYC-free access up to $1,500 notional exposure per market, allowing retail participation without identity verification below that threshold—though this market's low probability and niche appeal may limit liquidity at smaller stake sizes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.