Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate produces consistent daily maxima, with May temperatures typically ranging between 32–34°C at Changi Airport. The settlement hinges on the single highest reading recorded across all daylight and overnight hours on 26 May 2026, sourced from Wunderground's historical database for the official station. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse trading activity on this niche weather contract.

Historical May data from Changi shows the station rarely records extremes beyond 35°C during this month, though occasional spikes occur during dry spells or when the inter-monsoon transition creates localised heating. Comparable May 26th readings from prior years cluster around 32–33°C, providing a baseline against which traders should calibrate their range selections. The absence of significant outliers in recent decades suggests the market's probability distribution should reflect this narrow historical band rather than tail-risk scenarios.

Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore's seasonal forecasts and any announced dry-spell warnings in the weeks preceding late May 2026. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under the German GlüStV framework for non-EU operators and remains within CFTC reach for US persons, though the sub-$1,500 notional value threshold means most retail traders can access it without formal KYC documentation—a material factor in market liquidity for weather derivatives of this scale.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.