Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, which captures all daily temperature readings from the airport's official meteorological station. Taipei's subtropical climate typically produces May highs between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful likelihood of an outcome in whichever range this market is testing—a signal worth examining against seasonal norms and any anomalous weather patterns developing in the weeks prior.

Historical May temperatures in Taipei show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs on 26 May ranged from 26°C to 34°C, with most years clustering around 29–31°C. This distributional history provides a baseline against which current pricing can be assessed; a 0% reading on any single temperature band may reflect either genuine consensus that the outcome is implausible, or insufficient liquidity and trader participation to establish realistic odds.

Traders should monitor the Taiwan Central Weather Administration's seasonal forecasts and any tropical system activity in the western Pacific during May 2026. Typhoon formation or unusual monsoon patterns could shift temperatures materially. Additionally, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, meaning real-time weather data availability and the precise timing of the airport station's final reading become critical to resolution accuracy. Wunderground's historical database occasionally experiences minor delays in finalisation, so confirmation of the exact recorded value may take hours after the settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.