Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against a pre-defined Celsius range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or minimal trading activity; historical June temperatures at Haneda typically peak between 25–28°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C.

Tokyo's June weather depends on the East Asian monsoon transition and any early-season high-pressure systems. The Japan Meteorological Agency issues forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor their mid-May outlooks for anomalies. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by NOAA and JMA, influence seasonal temperature patterns and can shift June baselines by 1–2°C. Recent years show increasing frequency of early-summer heat events, though 2026 forecasting precision remains limited until late May.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing; traders in Germany face restrictions unless the operator holds appropriate approval. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like contracts; binary weather markets may fall outside direct CFTC reach if structured as information contracts rather than financial derivatives. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure, meaning traders can participate without identity verification below that threshold—a practical entry point for casual weather prediction without compliance friction, though larger positions typically trigger standard know-your-customer requirements.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.