Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Tokyo will record a daily maximum temperature at Haneda Airport Station. The settlement will depend on the highest reading captured across all daylight and evening hours, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical database. May temperatures in Tokyo typically range between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating all outcome ranges as equally unlikely at this stage.

Historical May weather patterns at Haneda show considerable variability year-on-year. In May 2023, Tokyo recorded highs of 27–29°C; in May 2024, readings peaked near 26°C. Early-season heat waves do occur—May 2022 saw temperatures exceed 30°C on multiple days—making extreme outcomes plausible but not routine. The 0% probability may reflect genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal; traders typically avoid committing capital to weather markets until nearer the event date, when meteorological forecasts narrow substantially.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based participants fall under the Gambling Commission's purview, whilst US traders face CFTC oversight of prediction markets. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing statute) does not directly regulate prediction markets on weather events, though EU traders should verify their local jurisdiction's stance. Most platforms offering weather prediction markets without KYC requirements maintain a threshold of approximately $1,500 cumulative exposure; this market's accessibility depends on whether your chosen venue enforces such limits. Traders should confirm their platform's compliance status before depositing funds.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.