Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above the lowest range sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect conditions to remain well below extreme heat thresholds despite the date falling in early summer.

Historical precedents frame this low probability: while June 25th recently saw Toronto-Pearson’s highest low temperature of 22.9°C since 1938, extreme heat events like the 35.8°C record from July 2016 remain rare outliers for this specific date [9][4]. Current forecasts for today indicate a high of 25°C with thundery showers, reinforcing the market’s view that temperatures will not breach the upper ranges that would trigger a YES outcome [2][3].

Traders should monitor Environment Canada heat advisories and daily forecast updates, as sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure or storm patterns could alter temperature trajectories [4]. Recent news highlights Environment Canada’s recommendation to schedule outdoor activities during cooler periods when heat warnings are issued, a dependency that directly influences whether extreme highs materialise [4]. Regulatory clarity remains key: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the legal landscape, while the ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ threshold ensures this market remains accessible to retail participants without intrusive verification, provided they stay within the stipulated limit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.