Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius, with settlement confirmed by Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting the market expects temperatures to fall outside the specific range being traded, likely due to the persistent cool, wet conditions typical of mid-winter Wellington.

Historical precedents frame this low probability: June in Wellington usually sees average highs between 54°F and 57°F (12°C–14°C), with overcast skies dominating 42% of the month[3]. While MetService recently noted Wellington beat its record June maximum with over 19°C recorded earlier this month[5], such spikes are rare anomalies against a backdrop of gales and heavy rain, as seen in today’s forecast of 51°F (11°C) with strong winds[1]. Traders should view the 0% probability as a reflection of this consistent winter baseline rather than an absolute dismissal of heat.

Key catalysts to watch include sudden shifts in the South Westerly wind pattern or unexpected clear-sky breaks, which could elevate temperatures above the norm. No major weather announcements are scheduled for 26 June, but traders must monitor real-time Wunderground updates and MetService bulletins for any deviation from the forecasted 51°F–55°F range[9]. The regulatory landscape remains relevant: German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks govern accessibility, yet the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows immediate participation for this market without identity verification, provided the trade stays within that limit. This accessibility ensures liquidity remains robust despite the low implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.