Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Wellington's winter climate—it is mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere—typically sees daily highs between 10–14 °C, though occasional warm fronts or föhn winds can push readings higher. The settlement will depend on data from Wunderground's historical records for that specific station, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC on the day itself.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's early stage and thin liquidity rather than meteorological certainty. Historical June temperatures at Wellington Airport show considerable variability: whilst most days cluster around 11–13 °C, outliers do occur. The 1997 and 2008 winter seasons recorded June highs exceeding 17 °C on isolated dates, demonstrating that warmer-than-typical outcomes, though infrequent, are not implausible. Comparable prediction markets on Southern Hemisphere winter temperatures have typically seen probabilities shift sharply once seasonal forecasts are published and traders incorporate model consensus.

Traders should monitor the MetService (New Zealand's national weather service) extended forecast for early June 2026, typically released 10–14 days prior. Any significant anticyclonic system moving north from the Tasman Sea could elevate temperatures materially above the seasonal norm. The market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction: UK traders face no specific KYC barrier under current FCA guidance for weather derivatives under £1,500 notional exposure, whilst US participants remain subject to CFTC oversight regardless of market size. German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV regulations, which classify weather prediction markets as games of chance in certain contexts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.