Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Wellington's winter climate typically sees daily maxima between 10–14 °C during late May, though occasional warm fronts can push readings into the mid-to-high teens. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the temperature to remain within the lowest specified band, reflecting seasonal norms for the southern hemisphere's autumn-to-winter transition.

Historical May temperature data from Wellington Airport shows considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past decade, late-May highs have ranged from 9 °C to 18 °C, with most years clustering around 12–13 °C. Unusually warm days occur roughly once every three to five years, driven by northerly wind patterns or subtropical air masses pushing south. The current zero probability may undervalue the tail risk of an anomalous warm day, though such events remain statistically infrequent enough to justify modest baseline expectations.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather market operates under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) treats prediction markets as wagering products requiring specific licensing; UK traders face Financial Conduct Authority oversight if the platform holds UK registration. US CFTC rules exempt certain prediction markets under the Dodd-Frank exemption, though enforcement remains selective. Many platforms offer no-KYC access for positions under $1,500 USD equivalent, lowering friction for small-stake weather bets whilst maintaining compliance thresholds in lower-risk jurisdictions. Settlement via Wunderground historical data removes counterparty dispute risk, anchoring the market to a transparent third-party source.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.