Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a single highest temperature on 26 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The market resolves based on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground for that specific station and date. Settlement occurs at midday UTC on the resolution date, after which the actual recorded high becomes fixed and the outcome determined.

May in Wellington falls during late autumn in the Southern Hemisphere, when daytime highs typically range between 12 and 16 degrees Celsius. Historical records show the airport station rarely exceeds 20 degrees on this date; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the outcome to fall within a lower temperature bracket than currently offered. Comparable May days at Wellington Airport over the past decade provide the baseline: most settle in the 13–17 degree range, with outliers either during warm fronts pushing into the low 20s or cold southerly flows dropping below 10 degrees. The absence of trading activity at any price point indicates either insufficient liquidity or consensus that certain temperature bands are implausible for late autumn conditions.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and New Zealand MetService forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May 2026, as these drive medium-range temperature predictions. Tropical cyclone activity in the Tasman Sea during May can push warm, moist air southward, occasionally elevating Wellington's highs by 5–8 degrees above seasonal norms. The market's regulatory framework—accessible without KYC verification up to NZD 2,000 equivalent under New Zealand's financial services exemptions, whilst remaining compliant with German GlüStV provisions for EU traders and subject to CFTC oversight for US participants—means settlement data must be independently verifiable and non-manipulable, making Weather Underground's historical archive the sole authoritative source.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.