World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 World Cup is already producing penalty data in open play, and that matters because this market counts only **missed or saved** spot-kicks taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time; shootout attempts are excluded. Early tournament penalties can move the line quickly, but the crowd’s 4% YES implies the market expects a low total relative to the full tournament schedule.

Historical World Cup context favours caution on very high totals. Penalties in finals tournaments are relatively scarce, and shootout conversion patterns do not directly help here because shootouts do not count for settlement; FIFA’s own tournament coverage and Opta’s shootout work both underline how distinctive penalties are in World Cup play, while standout individual records from Messi, Kane and others are about attempts, not necessarily missed totals.[3][5][8] For pricing, that means the main question is not whether World Cup matches *can* generate misses, but whether the expanded 2026 format produces enough high-leverage penalty incidents to reach the market’s threshold.

For accessibility and regulation, the practical picture is mixed: German users may run into **GlüStV** restrictions depending on how the platform is offered locally, while a US-facing venue can still attract **CFTC** scrutiny if it is treated as a derivatives-style event contract. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a low-friction entry tier, but only up to that ceiling; beyond it, identity checks generally become part of access and withdrawal flow, which affects how quickly a trader can scale exposure on a market that may stay active until the final matches. The main catalysts are the fixture list, referee strictness, and any late injury or tactical news that changes penalty-taking responsibility, rather than any shootout outcome, which is settlement-irrelevant.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.