Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 4 June 2026, with the Baiyun International Airport weather station recording the day's maximum temperature in Celsius. Historical June data for Guangzhou shows typical highs between 32–35°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 36°C during early monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bracket or awaiting clarity on which range options the market has defined.

Comparable June temperature records at Baiyun station reveal that days exceeding 37°C are rare but documented; the station's 30-year average for early June sits near 33°C. Current probability distribution appears compressed, indicating either thin liquidity or disagreement over whether the settlement window's noon cutoff will capture the true daily maximum. Traders should note that Wunderground's historical data for Chinese airports occasionally shows reporting lags or corrections post-settlement, though Baiyun's automated feed is generally reliable.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives require specific licensing; UK-based traders face no categorical restrictions on prediction markets below £5,000 notional value. US CFTC reach extends to US persons regardless of location, though weather prediction markets typically fall outside direct derivatives oversight if structured as binary events rather than leveraged contracts. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional allow anonymous participation in markets like this one, though settlement verification still requires valid data sources—here, Wunderground's publicly archived records.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.