Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once data is finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its records, typically within 24 hours of observation.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster between 28–32°C historically, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-season heat waves. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest range suggests the crowd expects a cooler-than-extreme day. Comparable June 4th readings from prior years show variability: the Observatory's climate archive reveals June typically transitions into the pre-monsoon season, when afternoon thunderstorms can suppress peaks, though high humidity and solar intensity often drive readings into the low 30s. Traders should cross-reference the Observatory's seasonal outlook and any published anomaly forecasts as June approaches.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative sits within the German GlüStV framework's scope for prediction markets, requiring operators to hold appropriate gaming licences. US CFTC oversight applies if US persons access the platform, though weather contracts under $1,500 notional value often fall outside derivatives registration thresholds. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" accessibility model means traders can participate in smaller positions without identity verification on compliant platforms, though larger stakes or jurisdictional red flags trigger standard anti-money-laundering checks. Settlement depends entirely on Hong Kong Observatory data publication; no alternative sources are accepted.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.