Highest temperature in London on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—a reflection of the market's early stage and distance from the event date.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, though extremes have occurred; the UK recorded 40.3°C in July 2022, and June heatwaves have pushed London into the high 20s. Historical precedent suggests mid-June temperatures cluster around 20–22°C under normal conditions. The zero probability reading here reflects standard behaviour for distant-future weather markets rather than any consensus that the event cannot occur; traders generally avoid committing capital to weather outcomes months in advance when forecast confidence remains negligible.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based traders face no specific KYC requirement for positions under £1,500 notional value under the Gambling Commission's exemption for prediction markets, though operators must maintain records. US traders encounter CFTC oversight if the platform is registered; EU traders in Germany face GlüStV licensing requirements if the operator accepts German participants. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the event date, aligning with standard meteorological reporting periods. Traders should monitor long-range forecasts beginning in late May; the UK Met Office typically issues 30-day outlooks by early June that may shift market positioning closer to the resolution date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.