Highest temperature in London on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will depend on data from Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific station, measured in Celsius. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient trader participation to establish a meaningful consensus.

London's June weather typically ranges between 15–22°C, though heat waves can push readings above 25°C. Historical precedent from the Met Office shows that early June temperatures in the capital rarely exceed 28°C; the 2022 heatwave that drove UK temperatures above 40°C occurred in July and August. Comparable weather prediction markets on similar dates have generally clustered around 18–24°C ranges, reflecting seasonal norms. The absence of meaningful probability distribution here may indicate the market has attracted limited liquidity or that traders are awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts closer to the settlement date.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under frameworks that vary by jurisdiction. The German GlüStV treats weather derivatives as financial instruments requiring specific licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to certain prediction markets depending on contract design and trader location. For UK-based traders, no-KYC access up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) means participation below that threshold avoids identity verification requirements, though larger positions trigger standard compliance checks. Wunderground's historical data feed provides transparent, verifiable settlement criteria, reducing dispute risk common in subjective-outcome markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.