Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market resolves based on historical weather data from Wunderground, capturing the peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for any final temperature readings recorded in the morning hours.

Late May in the Paris region typically sees daytime highs between 20–24°C, though heat waves can push temperatures substantially higher. Historical data from the same station shows that May extremes have occasionally exceeded 28°C, whilst cooler years remain closer to 18–20°C. The current crowd probability of 0% across all ranges suggests either a technical display issue or extreme uncertainty about which specific temperature band will occur. Comparable May 31st observations from prior years provide the most reliable baseline: reviewing Wunderground's historical archive for this date across multiple decades would establish whether certain ranges are genuinely implausible or simply underpriced.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts released in the final week of May, particularly from Météo-France, which publishes extended outlooks and heat alerts. Atmospheric patterns in late spring—including jet stream positioning and Atlantic pressure systems—typically become clearer five to seven days ahead. Any official heat warning issued by French authorities would signal elevated probability for higher temperature ranges. The Paris region's urban heat island effect means Le Bourget Airport readings may run 1–2°C warmer than surrounding rural areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating seasonal norms versus specific forecasts.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.