Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, the official reference point for the city's meteorological records. Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with average highs around 27–28°C, though temperatures can exceed 30°C during heat waves. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, converted to Celsius via the platform's settings toggle.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any meteorological certainty. Historical June temperature data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation; the past decade has recorded highs ranging from 24°C in cooler years to 33°C during warmer spells. Comparable seasonal markets on Korean weather have typically seen probability shifts only after mid-May forecasts materialise, when extended-range models gain reliability. Early positioning at extreme probabilities is common in weather markets with settlement windows more than eighteen months away.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks, issued quarterly, for any signals of anomalous June conditions in 2026. Pacific typhoon activity and the timing of the East Asian monsoon onset—typically late May to early June—will influence whether Seoul experiences above or below-average temperatures that month. Near-term catalysts include the KMA's spring 2026 forecast release and any El Niño or La Niña developments that affect regional weather patterns. Wunderground's historical data feed remains the sole resolution source, making data availability and platform continuity relevant considerations for position holders.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.