Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. Early June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-to-high 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders view the market's upper temperature brackets as unlikely, though this reflects positioning rather than meteorological impossibility.

Historical June records for Shanghai show considerable variance. The city experienced a 40.9°C peak in July 2022, and June temperatures have reached 37–38°C in recent decades during early-season heat events. The current zero probability may reflect either thin liquidity in upper brackets or genuine confidence that 4 June 2026 will fall within cooler-than-extreme ranges. Comparable early-June weather patterns from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant baseline; most years saw highs between 26–31°C, with outlier heat events occurring roughly once per decade.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May 2026, as subtropical pressure systems and monsoon positioning determine whether thermal anomalies develop. Recent precedent from June 2023 (when Shanghai recorded 35.1°C mid-month) illustrates how quickly conditions can shift. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, meaning final forecasts available 48 hours prior will carry material weight. From a regulatory standpoint, this weather market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable, with US CFTC reach limited to US-domiciled traders; no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure applies to this specific market, lowering barriers for smaller-stake participants seeking weather exposure without full identity verification.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.