Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Hong Kong will record a daily maximum temperature, which the Hong Kong Observatory will publish in its Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final data confirmation may extend beyond real-time observation. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" reading in degrees Celsius once the daily record is complete and verified.

Historical May temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable year-to-year variation. The territory's climatology for late May typically ranges between 28 and 33 degrees Celsius as daily highs, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 35 degrees. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either that no specific temperature band has yet attracted sufficient backing, or that traders are waiting for seasonal forecasts and atmospheric pattern data closer to the event date. Comparable May weather outcomes from 2015–2025 provide the most relevant baseline; the Observatory's historical daily maximum records are publicly accessible and form the empirical foundation for calibrating expectations.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's monthly seasonal outlooks, typically issued in early May, which project temperature ranges and rainfall patterns. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status in early 2026 will influence regional pressure systems and heat transport. Additionally, the Observatory publishes extended forecasts ten days ahead; watching these forecasts from mid-May onwards will sharpen probability estimates as the event date approaches. No regulatory KYC threshold applies to this market under German GlüStV or US CFTC oversight for traders operating within the £1,500 accessibility tier on compliant platforms.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.