Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport will settle into one of several defined ranges. The settlement relies on historical weather data logged at KLAX, the official station serving the Los Angeles basin, with resolution finalised through Wunderground's archival records. May temperatures in Los Angeles typically range between 65–80°F, though heat events can push readings into the mid-80s or occasionally higher.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders view certain temperature thresholds as implausible rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about the day itself. Historical May data from KLAX shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur rarely but are not unprecedented; the station recorded 93°F on 28 May 1919 and 91°F on 26 May 1989. Seasonal patterns favour moderate warmth in late May, with marine layer influence typically moderating afternoon peaks. Traders assessing upper-range outcomes should reference the last decade of May records, where KLAX has seen only isolated days above 88°F.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within the German GlüStV framework's exemption for prediction markets on non-financial events, provided operators maintain appropriate licensing. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives traded by US persons, though weather contracts on non-leveraged platforms often operate under exemptive relief. For UK-based traders, the no-KYC threshold up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) means positions below that value may settle without full identity verification, though operators must still comply with AML screening thresholds. Traders should verify their platform's specific KYC requirements before placing orders.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.