# of views of MrBeast video day 2?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's latest YouTube upload will accumulate views across its first 48 hours post-publication. The resolution hinges on the exact view count displayed on his channel at the 48-hour mark, with brackets determining which range the final figure falls into. Given the 0% crowd probability, traders are currently pricing in an outcome where the video underperforms historical benchmarks or fails to launch within the settlement window.

MrBeast's catalogue provides the empirical baseline. His recent uploads—including "50 YouTube Shorts for $250,000" and similar high-production releases—have consistently exceeded 50 million views within 48 hours, with flagship videos regularly reaching 80–120 million in that timeframe. The 0% probability suggests the market may be pricing in either an unusually niche or lower-engagement video, or uncertainty about whether a new upload will occur before 16 June 2026. Historical performance indicates that his subscriber base (over 200 million) and algorithmic positioning typically drive rapid initial traction, making sub-50-million outcomes statistically rare for his main-channel releases.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule closely, as the settlement window closes 16 June 2026 and requires a complete 48-hour observation period post-publication. Any announcement regarding production delays, format changes, or channel activity shifts would materially affect the probability. The current zero probability may reflect genuine uncertainty about whether a qualifying video will exist within the timeframe rather than confidence in low performance. Under UK regulatory frameworks and German GlüStV provisions, this market remains accessible to UK traders; US CFTC reach typically exempts prediction markets under $1,500 notional exposure per user, though traders should verify their jurisdiction's specific rules before participation.

Methodology

We track # of views of MrBeast video day 2? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.