Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil transits, has experienced significant traffic disruption since late 2023 owing to Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent military responses. The market resolves affirmatively if IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls—encompassing container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and general cargo vessels—at any point through end-2026. Historical baseline data shows the strait typically handled 80–90 daily transits before the escalation; the 60-call threshold thus represents a partial recovery rather than full normalisation, reflecting both reduced traffic volumes and rerouting via longer alternative passages.

Comparable disruption episodes offer limited precedent. The 2019 tanker attacks and 2022 Russia-Ukraine blockade of Ukrainian ports each produced temporary rerouting, yet neither persisted beyond 18 months before shipping patterns stabilised. The current Houthi campaign has proven more durable; as of early 2025, daily transits remain depressed relative to 2022 levels, though sporadic weeks have approached 60 calls. The 77% implied probability suggests market participants expect either de-escalation in regional tensions or sufficient normalisation of risk premiums to restore traffic within the settlement window.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Navy's Fifth Fleet regarding escort operations, any ceasefire negotiations involving Houthi representatives, and quarterly shipping reports from the International Maritime Organization. Lloyd's List and Hellenic Shipping News regularly publish Hormuz transit data; divergence between their counts and IMF Portwatch figures could affect settlement interpretation. Seasonal patterns—higher summer demand for crude oil—may create temporary spikes that approach the threshold, though sustained recovery depends on perceived security improvements rather than seasonal factors alone.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.