Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, with roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne petroleum passing through its narrow waters daily. Transit disruptions—whether from geopolitical tensions, military incidents, or regional instability—directly affect shipping schedules and insurance costs. The resolution criterion hinges on IMF Portwatch data showing a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls (container, dry bulk, tanker, and general cargo vessels combined) at any point before 31 July 2026. Current crowd pricing at 48% YES reflects genuine uncertainty about whether baseline traffic volumes will stabilise within the settlement window.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on incident severity. The 2019 tanker attacks saw transit calls drop sharply but recover within weeks once insurers adjusted coverage terms. The 2022 Ukraine-related energy market disruptions caused longer-term rerouting but did not permanently suppress Hormuz traffic. The current 48% probability implies traders assess meaningful risk that either fresh disruptions occur or that shipping patterns remain structurally depressed—perhaps due to sustained regional tensions, alternative routing investments, or demand destruction in key markets.

Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, US Central Command posture statements, and Lloyd's List casualty reports for incident escalation. Equally material are OPEC production decisions and LNG contract renegotiations, which influence voyage demand. IMF Portwatch publishes its data weekly; the 7-day moving average will be recalculated each publication cycle, meaning resolution can occur at any point if traffic rebounds decisively. Regulatory accessibility for UK traders follows FCA guidance; US-domiciled traders face CFTC jurisdiction over binary derivatives, whilst German traders should note GlüStV classification of prediction markets as wagering products rather than financial instruments, affecting tax treatment but not KYC thresholds for positions under €1,500 notional value.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.