Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes finalised data, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster consistently between 28°C and 33°C based on thirty-year climate normals, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C in early June. Historical records show the territory experiences pre-monsoon conditions in early summer, with high humidity but not yet peak heat. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available outcome bands or treating this as a calibration exercise against known seasonal patterns. Comparable single-day temperature markets in subtropical regions typically see probabilities distributed across multiple bands rather than concentrated at extremes.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on trader jurisdiction and deposit size. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets operating without a state licence face restrictions, though cross-border trading by individuals remains a grey area. The US CFTC's reach extends to US persons trading on offshore platforms, with enforcement focused on operator conduct rather than individual participation. Many prediction market platforms permit trading up to $1,500 without formal KYC verification, though this threshold varies by operator and does not eliminate anti-money-laundering obligations. Traders should verify their platform's specific compliance framework before placing positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.