Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) will fall within one of several defined ranges. NOAA's automated station publishes hourly readings; the settlement hinges on the single maximum value across all 24 hours that day, converted to Celsius and matched against the market's predefined brackets. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no outcome will materialise—a technical artefact common in nascent weather markets where historical data or seasonal baselines remain sparse.

Istanbul's May climate typically peaks between 24–28°C, with occasional excursions to 30°C during early heat waves. Historical May maxima at the airport have ranged from 19°C in cooler years to 32°C during anomalous warm spells. The current zero probability reflects either insufficient liquidity or uncertainty about whether NOAA's Istanbul Airport station will report data on the settlement date; weather markets depend entirely on data availability and source continuity. Comparable European airport temperature markets have resolved successfully when NOAA coverage remained uninterrupted.

Traders should monitor Turkish meteorological forecasts and NOAA's operational status for LTFM in the weeks preceding 25 May. Any planned maintenance or sensor recalibration could affect data publication. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV oversight if accessed from Germany; US CFTC reach applies to US persons, though weather derivatives fall outside direct CFTC jurisdiction. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 typically allow participation in such markets without identity verification, though settlement verification may still require documentation. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, after which NOAA's finalised data determines the outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.