Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature reached at LaGuardia Airport on 21 June 2026, with settlement tied to the daily maximum reported by Weather Underground for KLGA. For accessibility, a “no-KYC up to $1,500” structure means a user can usually participate without full identity verification until their activity exceeds that threshold, which is relevant for smaller positions but does not remove geoblocking, payment screening, or market-specific restrictions. In a German context, prediction-market participation can still sit within the scope of the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) if the activity is treated as gambling rather than a regulated financial instrument, so platform access and user obligations depend on classification rather than the market theme alone.

The current 0% implied probability for YES should be read cautiously because temperature markets can reprice sharply once a heat event is in view. New York has already been experiencing an intense early-summer heatwave, with recent coverage reporting dangerous heat, high humidity, and record-breaking readings across the region, including a reported 102°F at Central Park and excessive heat warnings across much of the Northeast. Historical framing matters here: LaGuardia’s climate normal maximum for 21 June is 83°F, while the record maximum for that date is 98°F, so a very hot day is not unusual in late June even if a new record remains harder to reach.

Traders should watch the National Weather Service forecast cycle, any updated heat advisories or excessive heat warnings, and whether cloud cover or sea-breeze effects cap the afternoon peak. The key dependency is the actual airport observation, not citywide feel-like temperatures, so nearby station differences, timing of the day’s maximum, and any late-afternoon cooling can all matter. US CFTC reach is also relevant because US-facing event markets may attract scrutiny if they are deemed derivatives-style contracts rather than pure prediction products, which can affect availability and onboarding even where no-KYC thresholds are in place.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.