Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives daily extremes for the New York City area. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity at present.

New York's late May temperatures typically range between 70–85°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for 30 May sits near 78°F according to NOAA records. Comparable spring-to-early-summer weather markets have shown that crowd estimates tend to cluster around seasonal norms unless specific meteorological warnings—such as heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns—emerge in the preceding weeks. The 0% reading here likely reflects early-stage market formation rather than genuine forecasting consensus.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast beginning mid-May, particularly any heat dome development or upper-level ridge positioning over the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and any tropical system tracking northward in late May could suppress temperatures or introduce volatility. Real-time atmospheric data from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will become actionable by late May. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 30 May, aligning with standard Wunderground daily-high reporting conventions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.