Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 28 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and measured in Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on that date. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; May temperatures in Seoul typically range between 20–28°C, though outliers do occur.

Historical May records for the Seoul metropolitan area show daily highs clustering around 24–26°C, with occasional peaks above 28°C during warm spells. The 2019 May average high reached 25.1°C; 2023 saw similar patterns. These baselines matter because they anchor what constitutes an unusual versus typical outcome. The current zero probability on this particular range indicates traders may be concentrated on adjacent temperature bands rather than absence of conviction about the underlying event itself.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based participants fall under the Gambling Commission's remit, whilst US traders face CFTC oversight of prediction markets, though enforcement remains selective. The German GlüStV (gambling state treaty) classifies weather derivatives cautiously; operators accepting German users typically require full KYC. Most platforms offering "no-KYC up to $1,500" limit that exemption to account creation only—settlement and withdrawal often require identity verification regardless of stake size. For this specific market, traders should confirm their jurisdiction's requirements before committing capital, as weather-based contracts occupy a grey zone between gaming and financial derivatives in several EU member states.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.