Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather database. June marks the transition into summer in Shanghai, with typical daily highs ranging from 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 1 June, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range across all local times.

Historical June data from Shanghai shows considerable year-to-year variance. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity in this market. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically see clustering around seasonal norms; Shanghai's June averages sit near 30°C, but outliers—both cooler and warmer—occur regularly. The current probability distribution warrants scrutiny against the meteorological baseline rather than crowd sentiment alone.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) treats prediction markets as gambling products requiring state licensing; UK-domiciled traders face FCA oversight, whilst US traders encounter CFTC jurisdiction over certain derivatives. Many platforms offer KYC-free access up to $1,500 notional exposure, a threshold designed to balance regulatory compliance with retail accessibility. For this Shanghai temperature market, traders should verify their platform's specific KYC requirements and jurisdictional restrictions before committing capital, as weather derivatives can trigger commodity or financial instrument classification depending on settlement mechanics and trader residency.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.