Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 22 June, with the market resolving against Wunderground’s daily history page for ZSPD. June is already a warm month at the airport: WeatherSpark puts average highs at roughly 77°F to 83°F across the month, and its climatology says the hot season starts around 17 June, so a reading in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius is not unusual in late June.[1][5]

A 0% crowd-implied probability is best read as a very sceptical starting point rather than a forecast of impossibility. Similar late-June Shanghai airport temperatures can still reach the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius on warm days, and the forecast range cited by AccuWeather for this location includes highs up to 93°F, which is about 34°C.[7][8] For market reading, the key question is not whether Shanghai is warm, but whether the day’s maximum clears the relevant bracket on the final Wunderground record; that keeps this closer to a local weather print than a broad climate bet.[2][4]

For accessibility, the regulatory overlay matters as much as the weather. German GlüStV rules are relevant because prediction markets may be treated as gambling-style products where German access, marketing, or participation can be constrained, while US CFTC reach matters if a platform is viewed as offering event contracts to US persons or otherwise touching US jurisdiction. “No-KYC up to $1,500” typically means a user can trade or withdraw only within a capped exposure or withdrawal band before identity checks are triggered, so this market may be easy to access for small positions but not necessarily for larger sizing or repeated turnover. The main near-term catalysts are straightforward: Shanghai’s official airport observations, any weather-system shifts over the afternoon, and the exact Wunderground daily high update that determines settlement.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.