Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Shenzhen's early summer climate typically sees daily highs between 28–34 °C, with occasional peaks above 35 °C during heat waves. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific station, which provides granular hourly records accessible via their archive interface.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve, rather than doubt that a reading will occur. Historical June data from Bao'an shows considerable year-to-year variance: June 2023 peaked at 33.8 °C, whilst June 2022 reached 35.2 °C. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026, alongside the strength of the South China Sea monsoon onset, will materially influence whether temperatures cluster in the 28–31 °C range or breach 34 °C. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts released in May 2026 and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding settlement.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions if accessed from the EU, with CFTC oversight applying to US-based participants. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to aggregate positions across all markets on the platform; exceeding this limit triggers identity verification requirements. For this specific weather market, a trader can establish and settle positions below that threshold without formal documentation, though position limits and account restrictions may apply depending on jurisdiction.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.