Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president since August 2023, faces removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 42% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty around Iran's political stability, factional tensions between hardliners and reformists, and the constitutional mechanisms by which a sitting president can be displaced. Pezeshkian's tenure has already weathered significant pressure: the October 2024 ballistic missile strikes on Israel triggered international escalation, whilst domestic economic challenges persist. The Iranian constitution permits impeachment by parliament (Majlis) with a two-thirds majority, though this remains a high bar. Alternatively, health crises, voluntary resignation, or extraordinary political upheaval could trigger removal.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005) and Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021) both completed full terms despite substantial international and domestic pressure. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced impeachment threats but served his full tenure. The last forced presidential departure occurred in 1989 when Khomeini demanded Abdolhassan Banisadr's removal—a rare event suggesting institutional resistance to mid-term turnover. The current 42% probability likely reflects traders pricing in both the structural difficulty of removing a sitting president and the genuine volatility of Iran's geopolitical position.

Traders should monitor parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025, which could shift factional balance and impeachment feasibility. Health announcements, statements from the Supreme Leader's office, and escalations in regional conflict represent key catalysts. The US CFTC's regulatory reach extends to US-based traders on this market; UK traders face no specific KYC barrier under GlüStV for positions under £1,500 notional value, though polymarket-kyc.co.uk's own compliance framework applies uniformly. Settlement hinges on any formal announcement of resignation or removal, regardless of implementation timing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.